Short answer: Probably not by much in the next year, based on the latest official forecasts. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average was 7.40% as of October 15, 2026, and the October 2026 forecasts from Fannie Mae (7.4% for the fourth quarter of 2026 and 7.5% for every quarter of 2027) and the Mortgage Bankers Association (7.3% this quarter, easing to 7.1% by late 2027) both keep rates above 7%. Rates still move week to week, so Maryland buyers should budget for today's payment and treat a future refinance as a bonus, not a plan.
Scott Smolen is a local Realtor helping buyers and sellers in Crofton, Odenton, Gambrills, Bowie, Severn and the Fort Meade area. This outlook pulls together the latest Freddie Mac rate survey, the newest Fannie Mae and MBA forecasts and Anne Arundel County sales data from Maryland REALTORS, then shows what the numbers mean for a real monthly payment. We refresh it each month after the new releases come out.
What are mortgage rates today?
Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) is the most widely cited weekly average. For the week ending October 15, 2026, the 30-year fixed averaged 7.40%, unchanged from the prior week, and the 15-year fixed averaged 6.71%, down from 6.73%. A year earlier, the 30-year averaged 6.27% and the 15-year averaged 5.52%.
| Week of | 30-year fixed | 15-year fixed |
|---|---|---|
| October 15, 2026 (latest) | 7.40% | 6.71% |
| October 8, 2026 | 7.40% | 6.73% |
| September 3, 2026 | 6.71% | 6.04% |
| February 26, 2026 (2026 low for the 30-year) | 5.98% | 5.44% |
| One year ago (October 2025) | 6.27% | 5.52% |
In other words, the 30-year average has climbed about 1.4 percentage points from its February low, and about half of that rise (0.69 point) came after early September. The PMMS reflects borrowers with good to excellent credit, a 20% down payment and a home purchase loan on an owner-occupied single-family home, so your own quote can be higher or lower.
Are mortgage rates expected to drop?
Not meaningfully, according to the two forecasts we track. Both were published in October 2026 and both are built on Freddie Mac's 30-year rate.
| Quarter | Fannie Mae (Oct. 12, 2026) | MBA (Oct. 11, 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Q4 2026 | 7.4% | 7.3% |
| Q1 2027 | 7.5% | 7.2% |
| Q2 2027 | 7.5% | 7.2% |
| Q3 2027 | 7.5% | 7.2% |
| Q4 2027 | 7.5% | 7.1% |
Fannie Mae notes that its interest rate forecasts are based on rates as of September 30, 2026, before the early October run-up. The MBA expects rates to "come down from their recent peaks" but to stay on a higher path than it previously forecast, and its table shows the 30-year near 7.0% by the end of 2028. Forecasts change every month, so treat these as the current best estimates, not promises.
Will mortgage rates go down in 2026?
With about ten weeks left in the year, neither forecast calls for a drop before year-end. Fannie Mae puts the fourth-quarter 2026 average at 7.4% and the MBA at 7.3%, compared with a first-quarter 2026 average of 6.1% in both forecast tables. A sharp drop would likely require a surprise, such as much cooler inflation data or a big rally in the bond market.
The Federal Reserve's September rate hike made headlines, but the Fed does not set mortgage rates directly. Thirty-year rates follow the bond market, inflation expectations and the economic outlook. We explain that in The Fed Raised Rates: Does That Mean Mortgage Rates Are Going Up?
When will mortgage rates drop?
Nobody knows the date, and anyone who promises one is guessing. Based on the October 2026 forecasts, the MBA sees only a gradual slide (7.2% through most of 2027, 7.1% in late 2027), while Fannie Mae sees rates holding near 7.5% through 2027. What to watch each month:
- The weekly Freddie Mac PMMS release every Thursday at 12 p.m. ET.
- Monthly inflation reports and the 10-year Treasury yield, which longer-term mortgage rates tend to track.
- Each new Fannie Mae and MBA forecast. We update this page when they change.
What does a rate change mean for a Maryland mortgage payment?
Here is a real Anne Arundel County example. Maryland REALTORS reports the county's September 2026 median sales price at $503,000. With 20% down ($100,600), the loan is $402,400. The table shows principal and interest only; taxes, insurance and any HOA dues are extra.
| Rate scenario | Rate | Monthly P&I | vs. today |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freddie Mac 30-year, Oct. 15, 2026 | 7.40% | $2,786.14 | - |
| Fannie Mae 2027 forecast | 7.50% | $2,813.64 | +$27.50 |
| MBA Q4 2026 forecast | 7.30% | $2,758.74 | -$27.40 |
| MBA Q4 2027 forecast | 7.10% | $2,704.26 | -$81.88 |
| Freddie Mac 30-year, one year ago | 6.27% | $2,482.88 | -$303.26 |
| Freddie Mac 30-year, 2026 low (Feb. 26) | 5.98% | $2,407.42 | -$378.72 |
| Freddie Mac 15-year, Oct. 15, 2026 (15-year term) | 6.71% | $3,551.96 | +$765.82 |
The math: Monthly payment = Loan x r / (1 - (1 + r)^-n), where r is the annual rate divided by 12 and n is the number of monthly payments.
At 7.40%: r = 0.074 / 12 = 0.0061667; n = 360; (1 + r)^-360 = 0.10935.
Payment = $402,400 x 0.0061667 / (1 - 0.10935) = $2,786.14 per month.
The takeaway: the MBA's late-2027 forecast would save about $81.88 a month on this loan. That is real money, so weigh it against what could happen to prices and your rent while you wait. Going all the way back to the 2026 low would save about $378.72 a month, but neither forecast expects that.
How can you get the best mortgage rate today?
The "best mortgage rates today" are the ones quoted to you, on the same day, for the same loan. A few steps help in any market:
- Compare at least two or three Loan Estimates on the same day. Rates change daily, so same-day quotes are the only fair comparison. See Mortgage Broker vs. Bank for how to shop.
- Look at the APR and the points, not just the rate. A lower rate that costs two points may not be the better deal if you plan to move or refinance.
- Protect your credit and down payment. The PMMS average reflects strong credit and 20% down; weaker credit or less down usually prices higher.
- Ask about VA loans if you serve or served. We often work with VA buyers near Fort Meade, Odenton and Crofton. Compare VA quotes with conventional quotes from the same lender.
- Already own a low-rate home? Tapping equity with a second loan may beat a cash-out refinance. Read HELOC vs. Home Equity Loan, and owners 62 and older can compare reverse mortgage pros and cons.
What do higher rates mean for Anne Arundel County buyers and sellers?
Higher rates have slowed sales, but prices are still edging up. Maryland REALTORS' September 2026 numbers (Bright MLS data) for Anne Arundel County:
| Measure | Sept. 2026 | Sept. 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median sales price | $503,000 | $490,990 | +2.4% |
| Units sold | 581 | 634 | -8.4% |
| Active inventory | 1,487 | 1,157 | +28.5% |
| Months of inventory | 2.4 | 1.9 | +28.0% |
| Median days on market | 15 | 12 | +25.0% |
Buyers have more choices and a bit more time than a year ago. Sellers can still do well, but pricing and presentation matter more. Sellers should read What Higher Mortgage Rates Mean for Maryland Home Sellers.
Frequently asked questions
Will mortgage rates go down in 2026?
Probably not by much. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average was 7.40% as of October 15, 2026, and October 2026 forecasts put the fourth-quarter 2026 average at 7.4% (Fannie Mae) and 7.3% (MBA).
Are mortgage rates expected to drop in 2027?
Only slightly, if at all. The MBA's October 2026 forecast shows the 30-year easing from 7.2% to 7.1% during 2027, while Fannie Mae's October 2026 forecast holds it at 7.5% for every quarter of 2027.
When will mortgage rates drop?
No one can name a date. The current forecasts show a slow decline at best, so watch the weekly Freddie Mac survey, inflation reports and each month's Fannie Mae and MBA forecast. We refresh this page monthly.
What is the best mortgage rate today?
Freddie Mac's weekly average was 7.40% for a 30-year fixed and 6.71% for a 15-year fixed as of October 15, 2026, for borrowers with strong credit and 20% down. Your best rate is the lowest same-day quote you receive after comparing Loan Estimates from more than one lender.
How much does a lower rate save on an Anne Arundel County home?
On a $402,400 loan (20% down on the county's $503,000 September 2026 median), principal and interest is about $2,786 a month at 7.40% and about $2,704 at 7.10%, a savings of about $82 a month.
Should I wait for rates to drop before buying near Fort Meade or Crofton?
Waiting is a bet on both rates and prices. Forecasts do not show a large drop soon, and Anne Arundel County's median price still rose 2.4% year over year in September 2026. Many buyers buy when the payment fits and refinance later if rates fall.
Talk to a local lender before you decide
Your rate depends on your credit, down payment, loan type and timing, so a national average is only a starting point. Call The Scott Smolen Team at 301-651-1261.
The Scott Smolen Team at RE/MAX Leading Edge, 1655 Crofton Blvd, Suite 203, Crofton, MD 21114.
Disclaimer: This article is general information, not financial, tax or legal advice, and it is not a loan offer or rate quote. Rates, forecasts and market data change often. Mortgage rates are Freddie Mac PMMS weekly averages as of October 15, 2026; Freddie Mac publishes new averages every Thursday. Payment examples are principal and interest only and are for illustration. Confirm terms, eligibility and costs with a licensed mortgage lender.
Sources:
- Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, U.S. weekly averages as of October 15, 2026: View official source (accessed October 19, 2026)
- Freddie Mac, PMMS historical weekly rates since 1971 (CSV download): View official source (accessed October 19, 2026)
- Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research, Housing Forecast: October 2026 (dated October 12, 2026): View official source (accessed October 19, 2026)
- Mortgage Bankers Association, Mortgage Finance Forecast, October 11, 2026: View official source (accessed October 19, 2026)
- Mortgage Bankers Association, MBA Newslink, Chart of the Week: Mortgage Originations Forecast (October 16, 2026): View official source (accessed October 19, 2026)
- Maryland REALTORS, Housing Statistics: September 2026 (Bright MLS data): View official source (accessed October 19, 2026)
- CFPB, How do mortgage lenders calculate monthly payments?: View official source (accessed October 19, 2026)