Fourth Quarter Boost in Home Sales Activity: Buyers are Active Despite Elevated Mortgage Rates and Prices

November was an unusually busy month for the housing market across the Bright MLS service area. Many homebuyers and sellers aimed to finalize their moves before the year's end. While seasonal cooling led to a dip in market activity from October to November, metrics such as closed sales, new pending sales, and showings experienced a strong year-over-year increase. This robust buyer interest occurred even as mortgage rates climbed higher during November.

“There are buyers out there who have been waiting a long time to get into the market,” said Dr. Lisa Sturtevant, Bright MLS Chief Economist. “Some are going to wait for mortgage rates to fall further. But for others, after rates have been close to 7% earlier this year, a rate in the mid-6s is good enough for them to buy.”

 

Seller Activity Remains Subdued

In contrast, sellers are holding back. New listings in November dropped significantly, falling 28.0% from October and 5.0% compared to November 2023. Despite this decline, the total number of homes available for sale at the end of November rose by 10.5% year-over-year, with 35,935 active listings across the Bright MLS service area.

This rise in inventory is primarily due to properties spending more time on the market. The median days on market for November was 14 days—two days longer than last year and much slower than earlier in 2024.

 

Outlook for 2025

Looking ahead, lower mortgage rates and a renewed sense of optimism for the new year are expected to encourage more buyers and sellers. Listing activity is anticipated to increase in 2025, providing more options for homebuyers. However, affordability challenges will persist, particularly for moderate-income buyers. Meanwhile, higher-income buyers and cash buyers are likely to remain active in the market. Additionally, sellers who have been waiting on the sidelines due to market uncertainty may return, driven by changes in their family or financial circumstances.

 

November 2024 Mid-Atlantic Housing Market by Region

Baltimore:

Sales Activity Climbs Further

  • Closed sales in the Baltimore region continued their upward trend, increasing by 8.3% compared to November 2023. This follows a 12.4% year-over-year jump in October.
  • Year-to-date sales suggest that 2024’s total closed sales will slightly surpass those of 2023.
  • Pending sales rose by 5.7% year-over-year in November, reflecting strong demand.
  • The median price in the Baltimore metro reached $399,945 in November, an 8.3% increase from November 2023.
  • This surge in activity occurred despite challenges from elevated rates, high prices, and constrained inventory.

Washington, D.C.:

Surprises Continue in November

  • The Washington, D.C. metro area saw 45,860 closed sales in November, putting total year-to-date sales above 2023 levels.
  • The median sold price held steady month-over-month but increased by 5.3% compared to November 2023.
  • Certain counties, such as Arlington, Fairfax, and Loudoun, reported fewer active listings at the end of November 2024 compared to the previous year, maintaining a competitive market.
  • More activity is expected in 2025 as mortgage rates ease, though affordability will remain a significant challenge for many buyers.

 

Bottom Line

The November 2024 housing market demonstrates resilience, with buyers remaining active despite elevated mortgage rates and limited inventory. Sellers, however, appear cautious, waiting for more favorable conditions. As we move into 2025, the market is poised for increased activity, though challenges related to affordability persist. For personalized insights into the housing market in your neighborhood or to discuss your real estate goals, connect with Scott and the Smolen Team. We are here to provide the expertise and guidance you need for success in any market.